Calculating the Final Pace/Time

October 4, 2016


Last weekend I visited my sister in West Virginia—Oktoberfest celebration in full swing and ended up running a 5k (3.1 miles).  Short races during training can help extrapolate a range for the pace of a final race—in particular if there are other markers.  I did a 15k (9.3 miles) in July.  My pace on that race was 8:30.  The pace for the 5K last weekend was 7:50.  Does that mean that my pace should fall between a 7:50 and 8:30 pace for the marathon thus giving us a 3:25 – 3:42 final time range?  The one thing that such extrapolation does not take into account is that the distances are vastly different.  I am also extremely conservative and try to cushion or budget time for other eventualities such as bathroom breaks, walking due to cramping, hydration stops etc.  So looking at my numbers, I feel comfortable saying that the final pace will fall anywhere between 8:30 and 9:00 giving us a final time of 3:42 – 3:55.  Cross your fingers with me and be my tail wind!

I pace chart from Runner’s world can be found here:


Last, but not least, I’ve had some very nice runs as of late.  The weather is beginning to cool down considerably and that is welcoming news.  In a few minutes, I will be doing a run through the city and then down to Rock Creek Park.  I’m thinking of my VCHT family as I lace up.


Running, running and more running!  Glad to know that you are with me.

José Carrasquillo

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